Texas: What Early Poll Results Tell Us

Some people might have been surprised by the University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll results released Monday, which showed Greg Abbott leading Wendy Davis by 6 points in a two-way contest and by 5 in a three-way race — a single-digit margin for a statewide office that the Democrats haven’t claimed for 20 years. …

But it’s important to note that the trial ballot result is also a reflection of the attitudes of registered voters — all of them — and that only a small subset of registered voters will turn out come November 2014 (probably under 40 percent). CONT.

Jim Henson, Joshua Blank & Daron Shaw, Texas Tribune