The Republicans’ Built-in House Advantage

… The findings below indicate that between 1972 and 2010, there was only a very slight overall partisan bias toward Democrats in redistricting. Toward the start of this period, Democrats had a large advantage, but by the 1990s it had become relatively small. Since 2002, the partisan bias in redistricting has shifted in favor of Republicans to a large degree. Looking forward from the 2012 election result, this research finds that Democrats would have to get around 53% of the two-party national House vote to have a shot at winning a majority in the lower chamber. [cont.]

Theodore Arrington (UNC), Sabato’s Crystal Ball