How Twitter could predict elections: A rebuttal

The polling world was caught up in the buzz this week about research showing how to predict congressional elections using Twitter. …

Does this portend the demise of traditional polling? Will Nate Silver need to totally revamp his approach to predicting elections? And will election night coverage devolve into flashing a chart of real-time tweet flows? Of course not. As the adage goes: if it looks too good to be true, it is too good to be true. In the present case of predictive Tweetnados, the devil is in the details. [cont.]

Rob Santos (AAPOR), Washington Post