Twitter Can’t Yet Predict Elections

The folks over at the Washington Post must have needed copy desperately for Monday’s opinion page if they were willing to publish a piece titled, “How Twitter can help predict an election.”

In the column, Indiana University Sociologist Fabio Rojas asserts: “Twitter discussions are an unusually good predictor of U.S. House elections.” He and his fellow researchers “found a strong correlation between a candidate’s ‘tweet share’ and the final two-party vote share,” and it doesn’t even matter whether the tweets are positive or negative. Content is irrelevant.

If you believe that, would you be interested in buying the Brooklyn Bridge from me? [cont.]

Stuart Rothenberg