‘Missing Voters’ in the 2012 Election: Not so white, not so Republican

Do “missing white voters” offer hope for the Republican Party in future presidential elections? …

We have argued that the “missing white voters” theory is unrealistic for several reasons. The most important is that it ignores the missing nonwhite voters — data on voter turnout in 2012 show that a substantial number of nonwhites also dropped out of the electorate in 2012. This past election featured a lower turnout overall than 2008, and this was true for nonwhites as well as for whites. [cont.]

Alan Abramowitz & Ruy Teixeira, Sabato’s Crystal Ball