Geography, Not Voting Rights Act, Accounts for Most Majority-Minority Districts

The Supreme Court’s decision on the Voting Rights Act on Tuesday — which struck down one provision of the law outright, neutered another and set a precedent that could eventually threaten the rest of the legislation — may reduce the pressure on states to create majority-minority districts when they engage in Congressional redistricting after each decennial census.

I’ve seen a lot of speculation on Twitter about the effects this ruling might have on the partisan composition of Congress, but most of it doesn’t get the story quite right, in my view. The problem is that most people are putting too much weight on gerrymandering and not enough on geography. [cont.]

Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight (NYT)