… I want to correct an assertion that I made a week ago. Here’s what I wrote at that time:
“[B]ecause they create as many fractures across the parties as between them, the recent N.S.A. disclosures might not have all that much effect, for instance, on Mr. Obama’s approval ratings.”
I’m less concerned about the outcome of my “prediction” on Mr. Obama’s approval ratings than about my reasoning behind it. My claim that if an issue divides awkwardly across the partisan spectrum, a president may be protected from a decline in his approval ratings. I think my point may have been quite wrong. [cont.]
Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight (NYT)