… Since 1997 (which is as far back as records of special elections go on history.house.gov), candidates who won a special election in a district carried by the opposing political party in the preceding presidential election have had fleeting tenures in Congress.
There have been 59 special elections since 1997, and just 13 candidates have carried districts that leaned away from their political party (a Republican representing a Democratic-leaning seat or vice versa). Of those 13, 12 no longer hold those seats. [cont.]
Micah Cohen, FiveThirtyEight (NYT)