How good is ADP at forecasting the monthly BLS jobs reports?

… Jobs reports used to be exciting only for economists and stockbrokers, but since the election season, every political junkie and their dog seems to have taken an interest. People recognize that the economy plays a vital role in deciding votes; these reports, therefore, offer a vital clue to predicting the politicians’ election chances. So, now we have both the economic and political class yearning for 8.30am on the first Friday of the month, all to learn about the jobs numbers.

But as in so many arenas in America, people can’t wait to see what happens. They race to get the answer as quickly as they can, picking up on whatever clues they deem fit. Enter the ADP jobs report, a jobs survey released two days before the official Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) government report. [cont.]

Harry Enten, The Guardian