Modeling the Senate’s Vote on Gun Control

The failure of the Senate on Wednesday to pass a variety of gun control measures is yielding its share of second-guessing. How close was President Obama to seeing the bills meet the 60-vote super-majority required for approval? And was it a good use of his political capital to try?

I won’t attempt to provide definitive answers to these questions, but we can address some simpler ones. What factors predicted how the senators voted? Which were the most surprising yes votes — and which no votes does Mr. Obama have the most license to complain about? [cont.]

Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight (NYT)