How Opinion on Same-Sex Marriage Is Changing, and What It Means

The Supreme Court will hear arguments this week on two cases related to same-sex marriage, the first involving a California referendum that barred gay marriage, the other involving a federal law that prevents the government from recognizing same-sex unions. A variety of outcomes are possible, but it seems prudent to take stock of public opinion on same-sex marriage before the decisions come down. …

Eight national polls on same-sex marriage have been conducted so far this year, according to the database. The consensus of these polls is that support for same-sex marriage now exceeds opposition to it; on average, the polls have 51 percent saying they approve same-sex marriage, and 43 percent saying they are opposed. [cont.]

Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight (NYT)

Recent national polls: Marriage
Recent state polls: Marriage (for subscribers)