Gallup, which has long touted itself as the most trusted survey brand in the world, is facing a crisis. If Barack Obama’s reelection in November was widely considered a win for data crunchers, who had predicted the president’s victory in the face of skeptical pundits, it was a black mark for Gallup, whose polls leading up to Election Day had given the edge to Republican nominee Mitt Romney. …
An assessment of Gallup’s recent struggles shows that its problems measuring the electoral horse race in 2012 were more severe, but similar in nature, to those faced by many other media polls. The firm’s internal review, therefore, offers Gallup a chance not only to identify what went awry in 2012, but also to help the public understand how polling works — and sometimes doesn’t — in the current era. [cont.]
Mark Blumenthal, Huffington Post