It is clear a traditional Likely Voter Model based only on self-described interest and self-described likelihood to vote missed the scope of the turnout of 18-29 year olds and Latinos in 2012.
With what we know now, it is important to look again at the survey research completed in 2012. We need to understand what it was telling us about level of interest and likelihood to vote. We need to think through how what we learned impacts what we do in terms of developing and strengthening a Likely Voter Model for future election cycles. [cont.]
Bill McInturff, Public Opinion Strategies