On August 1, 2012, we prepared a forecast of the 2012 presidential vote for PS. Our model contains two variables: (1) the cumulated weighted growth in leading economic indicators (LEI) through the 13th quarter of the current presidential term and (2) the incumbent party candidate’s share in the most recent trial-heat polls, which were for the month of July. …
Our forecast published in PS (Erikson and Wlezien, 2012a), based on trial heat polls in July, was that Barack Obama would win 52.6% of the two-party popular vote. This turned out to be quite close to the Election Day outcome, which is 51.4% as of this writing (November 12, 2012). [cont.]
Christopher Wlezien & Robert Erikson (The Monkey Cage)