Gallup(ing) Away from the Herd

… Now that the exit polls are public, we can assess Gallup’s expectations about a Republican partisan advantage, the lynchpin of Gallup’s lonely prediction that Romney would win the popular vote. …

We know that Gallup did not force their likely voter sample to fit a pre-determined distribution of partisan identification. What then led the Gallup likely voter formula to oversample Republicans? Some clues are found when also considering Gallup’s projections about the proportion of women, young adults, and whites in the active electorate. [cont.]

Samuel Best, U. of Conn., & Brian Krueger, U. of R.I. (The Monkey Cage)