Tomorrow night (or more likely Wednesday morning), someone is going to look pretty bad. It might be the pollsters who have continually insisted on using a 2008 model for their polls. Or it will be pollsters like us and other analysts who have criticized the 2008 model as unrealistic and exaggerating Obama’s advantage.
But, finally, we’ll get some real answers.
So, to put ourselves out there even more, today we engage in the highly foolish act of prognostication. It would probably be better if we didn’t, but many have been unwise enough to ask me what I think. [cont.]
Chris Wilson, Chris Perkins, Bryon Allen, WPA Opinion Research