Reframing Turnout: Why 2008 Wasn’t As Unique As Many Imagine

The turnout assumptions of pollsters are increasingly under scrutiny, with the polls often showing Democrats with a persistent advantage in party-ID.

Many hold that the polls assume an unrealistically high Democratic turnout, mainly based on the assumption that Democratic, young, and minority turnout was anomalously high in 2008 and can’t be repeated, while Republicans who stayed home are destined to rise from their couches. [cont.]

Nate Cohn, The New Republic