‘For Whom Will You Vote?’ May Be Wrong Question

In the vast majority of pre-election polls, likely voters are usually asked, “If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?”

That’s the wrong question to ask, says Justin Wolfers, a political economist with the University of Michigan. He’s spent years researching polls, and in a new paper he offers what he says is the right question:

Who do you think will win?

“It’s basically about treating the people you’re asking the question — the respondents — with respect,” Wolfers tells weekends on All Things Considered host Guy Raz. [cont.]


See also: Forecasting Elections: Voter Intentions versus Expectations