What State Polls Suggest About the National Popular Vote

Mitt Romney and President Obama remain roughly tied in national polls, while state polls are suggestive of a lead for Mr. Obama in the Electoral College.

Most people take this to mean that there is a fairly good chance of a split outcome between the Electoral College and the popular vote, as we had in 2000. But the story may not be so simple. [cont.]

Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight (NYT)