What Too Close to Call Really Means

I am a political statistician, or, perhaps I should say, a statistical political scientist. Announcing this to someone can elicit diminished eye contact, but every four years I experience a temporary surge in popularity.

For months now people I know have been stopping me on the street to ask who I think will win the election. And for months I’ve always said, either side could win it. [cont.]

Andrew Gelman, Columbia U. (NYT)