… In my last post I discussed one such model – the one developed by Emory political scientist Drew Linzer and featured at his Votamatic website. …
Today I want to discuss a second state-based forecast model created by political scientists Tom Holbrook and Jay DeSart. Their model is even simpler and more parsimonious than Drew’s.
Essentially, they look at three variables: the average Democratic vote share in all trial-heat polls in the field during October, the average Democratic share of the two-party support in national polls taken in the second half of September prior to the election, and the average Democratic two-party state vote share in the four previous presidential elections. [cont.]
Matthew Dickinson, Middlebury College