Where we are in the race

… Speculation about a split between the popular and electoral votes is wildly overblown — while not impossible, the probability of such a split is quite low.

Nonetheless, while the reasoning and the math are arcane, the conclusion is that over the last four cycles, the Electoral College has exhibited a bias of just under a point toward the Democrats. Thus, a close popular vote is more likely to produce an Obama victory than a Romney win. [cont.]

Mark Mellman