… Florida has been polled so densely that the overall trend has become clear: Mr. Romney has made larger-than-average gains in the state since the Denver debate, and has now become a definitive favorite there. …
Mr. Romney’s gains in Florida call into question how vigorously the campaigns should be contesting it over the final two weeks of the campaign. Mr. Romney might consider relaxing his efforts there, while Mr. Obama’s campaign might consider de-emphasizing the state.
Based on the FiveThirtyEight tipping point index, Florida is now only the 9th most important state in the Electoral College math. There is only about a 2 percent chance that the decisive Electoral College vote will be cast in that state on Nov. 6. [cont.]
Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight (NYT)