Which Changed First, the Polls or the Markets?

While Wall Street has thrown the bulk of its donations behind Mitt Romney, it is not viewing his potential ascent as an entirely good thing for the markets. …

Traders have not suddenly concluded that Mr. Romney is a sure bet for the White House — most prediction models still give Mr. Obama better-than-even odds of winning. But few people are more attuned to the subtle movements of polls than the number crunchers on Wall Street.

On trading floors, there is constant discussion and occasional wagering on the changing odds of the election outcome on Intrade, the betting Web site. [cont.]

Nathaniel Popper, New York Times