The poll result that explains the election

Washington has been a bit perplexed by President Obama’s small but persistent lead in the polls. His administration would seem to fail the “Are you better off than you were four years ago” text [sic]. And presidents who fail that test lose, right?

But perhaps that’s the wrong question. …

The new Allstate/National Journal/Heartland Monitor poll … asked the standard “are you better off now than you were four years ago?” A plurality said they were not. Then they asked, “are you better off because Obama won in 2008″? A plurality said they were. [cont.]

Ezra Klein, Washington Post