… When Republicans miss a step or drag their feet, the odds that Obama will win a second term rise. When economic news is front and center, those odds decline. If everything stays the same from one day to the next, the odds list toward Obama for the simple reason that challenger Mitt Romney is running out of time to make his case.
At the moment, that tug-of-war favors the president, whose postconvention poll bounce was larger than expected. That, combined with strong fundraising numbers for August, propels Obama to his highest likelihood of re-election since the Signal launched. Obama currently has a 64 percent likelihood for re-election over Romney. [cont.]
David Rothschild, Yahoo! News