Forecasting the Presidential Election: Other Crystal Balls

… A better way to forecast the election results — potentially, at least — is to uncover the underlying fundamentals that propel an electorate to vote the way it does, and to combine them in some rigorous, standard fashion based on America’s voting history. …

Prof. James Campbell of the University at Buffalo, SUNY has gathered together 13 models’ forecasts for a symposium to be published in the October edition of PS: Political Science & Politics (a journal of the American Political Science Association).

With his permission, we are giving our readers a sneak peek at these forecasts, some of which are based on national data and others of which rely on state-level information. [cont.]

Larry J. Sabato, U.Va. Center for Politics