… Over the last decade, almost entirely out of view, campaigns have modernized their techniques in such a way that nearly every member of the political press now lacks the specialized expertise to interpret what’s going on. Campaign professionals have developed a new conceptual framework for understanding what moves votes. …
Five days after Mitt Romney selected Paul D. Ryan as his running mate, Mr. Obama’s campaign released a public memo by Mr. [Joel] Benenson with the title “Romney’s Choice of Ryan Falls Flat.” …
Benenson wrote that “Ryan has had virtually no impact on Romney’s position.” That may have been a fair conclusion to draw from the public horse-race polls available then. But the publicly available data Mr. Benenson cited relied on an entirely different sampling methodology than the ones based on microtargeting scores that Mr. Obama’s polling operation actually uses to guide campaign strategy. …
Contrary to what Mr. Benenson’s public memo suggested, the Obama campaign wasn’t merely concerned with those who had already moved because of the Ryan pick. Chicago was already one step ahead, tracking those who may have just become susceptible to future movement. [cont.]
Sasha Issenberg, New York Times