From a memo for Resurgent Republic by Haley Barbour, former governor of Mississippi, Whit Ayres, president of North Star Opinion Research, and Luke Frans, executive director of Resurgent Republic.
The Supreme Court’s decision upholding the constitutionality of the health care reform law has had a marginally positive effect on voter attitudes about the law, but more voters still oppose it than support it, and they now think President Obama broke his pledge not to raise taxes.
1. Voters split right down the middle on whether they approve or disapprove of the Supreme Court’s decision upholding the constitutionality of the health care reform law. Forty-seven percent approve and 46 percent disapprove. Republicans overwhelmingly disapprove by 82 to 12 percent, while Democrats overwhelmingly approve, 79 to 14 percent. Independents and battleground-state voters disapprove, 48 to 44 percent and 49 to 42 percent, respectively.
2. The vast majority of voters says the Supreme Court’s decision has no effect on their view of the health care reform law, but by a narrow margin the decision makes voters more likely rather than less likely to support it. Fifty-eight percent say the Court’s decision has no effect on their view of the law. Twenty-one percent say they are more likely to support the law because of the Court’s decision, while 16 percent say they are less likely.
3. Even with the Supreme Court’s decision, more voters still oppose than support the health care reform law. Forty-three percent of all voters support the law, and 48 percent oppose it. Republicans oppose it at a higher level (87 to 8 percent) than Democrats support it (77 to 13 percent).
4. A majority of Independents and battleground-state voters still opposes the law. Independents oppose it by 50 to 37 percent, as do battleground-state voters by 52 to 39 percent.
5. As a result of the Supreme Court’s declaration that the penalty for failure to buy health insurance is a tax, a majority of Independents and battleground-state voters thinks President Obama broke his pledge not to raise taxes on families making less than $250,000 per year. Voters overall now think he broke his pledge by 49 to 43 percent, including 51 to 41 percent among Independents and 51 to 42 percent among battleground-state voters.
6. The Supreme Court’s decision has caused its favorability to take a hit among Republicans, but its favorable rating stands higher than its unfavorable rating among all three partisan groups. Overall the Supreme Court’s favorable-to-unfavorable rating is 54 to 31 percent, including 47 to 42 percent among Republicans, 51 to 33 percent among Independents, 62 to 22 percent among Democrats, and 49 to 33 percent among battleground-state voters.
The poll results discussed above are from a Resurgent Republic survey conducted July 9-12 by North Star Opinion Research. The full memo can be found at ResurgentRepublic.com. This excerpt is reprinted with the permission of Resurgent Republic.