Taking Stock of the American Mood

… The scholars, led by Robert Prechter, examined one of the oldest riddles in American politics: what best predicts the outcome of presidential elections? … The researchers found that presidential incumbents were almost always re-elected if they presided over a rising stock market the last three years of their term. Conversely, incumbents almost always lost if their tenure coincided with declining markets. Moreover, the larger the gains or losses recorded by the market, the more certain the electoral outcome. [cont.]

G. Terry Madonna & Michael L. Young, Franklin & Marshall College